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| 多国GDP 溢出下我国应对国际金融
危机的对策研究 |
| Analysis on China' s Pol icies against International FinancialCrisis with GDP-spillovers in Multilateral Model |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: GDP 溢出 金融危机 金融政策 |
| 英文关键词: GDP spillovers Financial crisis Financial po licy |
| 基金项目:本文得到国家自然科学基金(70673099)、中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所青年科研基金
(O801041Q01)资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 本研究发展了两国Mundell-Fleming 模型, 建立了中国、美国、日本、欧盟的多国(地区)GDP
溢出模型, 对当前国际金融危机下我国的金融政策进行了模拟分析。研究结果发现, 在下一阶段, 稳定
人民币汇率是促进我国经济增长的较有效途径;降低利率在一定程度上能拉动内需刺激消费, 但是对于
GDP 增长作用甚微;若要加大货币发行量则必须将增幅控制在3.3% , 否则将使我国GDP 增长率有所
降低;我国增加政府投资不仅可使GDP 增幅提高约3 个百分点, 而且有助于其他国家经济增长;美联储
大购国债将对我国经济产生负面影响, 我国应继续深化4 万亿投资计划, 加大政府投资。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| In o rder to analy ze the financial policies of China dealing with the g lobal financial crisis , a GDP-spillovers model
in multilateral is established in this paper based on the bilateral Mundell-Fleming model.China , USA, Japan and EU are
considered in the GDP-spillovers model.Analyses show the following results:1 .Stabilizing exchange rate of China' s currency
could promote the national economic grow th.2.Thoug h interest cutting rates can stimulate the domestic consumptio
n in a certain extent , but the influence o n GDP grow th is tiny .3 .The ex panse of the monetary circulation should be
controlled within 3 .3%, o therwise the GDP g row th would be negatively influenced.4 .The increase in governmental
consumption not only can boost China' s GDP g row th in about 3 %, but also is benefit fo r economic grow th in o ther countries
.5 .China' s economy w ill be negatively influenced by the U .S .Federal Reserve' s purchase of public debt .Against
the influence , China should deepen the g overnmental investment to boost the domestic production and consumption. |
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