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| 中国粮食生产区域格局变化及其成因实证分析
———基于空间计量经济学模型 |
| Empirical Studies on the Variation and Contributing Factors ofRegional Grain Production Strcuture in China———Based on Spatial Econometrics Models |
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| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 粮食生产 区域格局 空间溢出效应 空间计量经济模型 面板数据 |
| 英文关键词: Grain production Regional structure Spatial spillover effect Spatial econometrics model Panel data |
| 基金项目:本文是国家自然科学基金项目“ 全球化背景下中国粮食供求区域均衡机理与政策研究”(项目批准
号:70571070)的阶段性研究成果之一。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于1978 — 2005 年中国各省区粮食生产面板数据, 运用生产集中度从大区和省区两个层面
综合考察粮食生产区域格局变化趋势, 并从空间计量经济学角度, 采用Moran' s I 指数验证了中国各省
区粮食生产总量数据的空间特性, 在此基础上利用Panel Data 结合空间误差模型实证分析中国粮食生
产区域空间格局变化的成因。计量结果显示:农业劳动力数量及其受教育程度, 化肥、农机动力等投入,
有效灌溉面积, 农村水库库容量等因素均对各地区粮食生产总量的增长起到显著正向作用;而除涝面
积, 自然灾害成灾受灾面积比例, 农民非农就业收入比重等因素对粮食生产总量的变化起到负向作用;
且空间误差参数结果表明本地区的粮食生产会受到相邻地区粮食生产负方向的影响。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the panel data of provincial grain production in China from 1978 to 2005, the trend of Chinese
provincial g rain structure v ariation was analy zed using the index of productio n convergence bo th on the region and province
levels.Then w ith the spatial econometrics theory and methods, the spatial characteristics of Chinese grain productio n data
w as checked by the Moran' s I index and the contributing facto rs of the variation above w ere studied using Spatial Erro r
Model .The empirical results show tha t:the variatio n of Chinese grain spatial structure is effected positively by the quantity
and quality of agricultural labour , input of fer tilizer and ag ricultural machine power , effective ir rigation areas and quantity
of rural w ater pools w hile effected nega tively by the areas of w aterlogging control , the scale of natural hazard and the
rural people' s non-agriculture income propor tio n.What' s more , the result of spatial erro r parameter presents that the
g rain production of local area can be influnced oppositely by the neighbour region' s grain production . |
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